Global Warming and Glaciers

New data suggests that glaciers are not melting at an increased rate; but that the rate is more steady that environmentalists would have us believe. Go figure.

The study, led by Ian Howat, a researcher with the University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Data Center and the University of Washington's Applied Physics Laboratory, shows the glaciers shrank dramatically and dumped twice as much ice into the sea during a period of less than a year between 2004 and 2005.

But then, fewer than two years later, they returned to near their previous rates of discharge.

Howat says such variability during such a short time underlines the problem in assuming glacial melting and sea level rise will necessarily occur at a steady upward trajectory.

"Our main point is that the behavior of these glaciers can change a lot from year to year, so we can't assume to know the future behavior from short records of recent changes," he said. "Future warming may lead to rapid pulses of retreat and increased discharge rather than a long, steady drawdown."

Isn't this what I've been saying post after post? You cannot predict the future with a few current variables. The planet is billions of years old. We have accurate data for about 100 years (or less). How can we possibly know the future when we barely understand the present. We don't trust weather forecasts 2 weeks ahead, why do we trust computer based predictions 100 years ahead of time?

Based on all the expert opinions out there, you'd think we had thousands of people studying the glaciers, wouldn't you? Or at least that scientists have examined many of the glaciers, at least. Not so.

Raina told the Hindustan Times that out of 9,575 glaciers in India, till date, research has been conducted only on about 50. Nearly 200 years data has shown that nothing abnormal has occurred in any of these glaciers.

More...

Maintaining that the glaciers are undergoing natural changes, witnessed periodically, he said recent studies in the Gangotri and Zanskar areas (Drung- Drung, Kagriz glaciers) have not shown any evidence of major retreat.

"Claims of global warming causing glacial melt in the Himalayas are based on wrong assumptions," Raina, a trained mountaineer and skiing expert said. He rued that not much is being done by the Government to create a bank of trained geologists for an in-depth study of glaciers.

Who needs geologists, when you have politicians and activists?